Future of Points and Miles
While completing dozens of interviews for the two new positions at Travel on Point(s), Sarah and I heard a question regularly repeated: what is the future of points and miles? I know it is a topic that comes up frequently, usually by people new to award travel that fear they have “missed the boat.” It's not true, folks. It is not true at all. Let's talk about why the future of points & miles is bright.
Reasons to Fear The Game is Over
People new to award travel, and some old-timers too, see devaluations or negative changes in our game and immediately fear that the glory days are in our past. Recently, we've seen these devaluations, among many others:
- Hyatt annual award changes
- Multiple Virgin Atlantic devaluations in 2025
- an Iberia Airlines devaluation
- Hilton devalued most of its ToP properties
- lifemiles devalued, then devalued again, and then partially reversed one of the devaluations
- Flying Blue devalued its program
- United axed the Excursionist Perk
- Marriott exponentially increased rates at ToP properties
While this is just a sampling of the bad news in our hobby, this is just one side of the coin. All too often, many forget that loyalty program devaluations are just ONE part of the game.
Reasons the Future of Points and Miles is Bright
Look, I am not an optimist by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, most of my friends that interact with me on a daily basis would argue I am much more of a “glass half empty” kind of guy. I, too, can look at negative news and immediately fear the worst. But I am bullish, very bullish, in fact, about the future of points and miles. Here are several reasons why.
The Credit Card Competition Act Was Defeated
Over the last few years, members of Congress have repeatedly introduced legislation that seeks to infuse competition into credit card processing. On its face, this legislation aims to break up the de facto duopoly of Visa and Mastercard. This legislation is backed by big-box stores and giant retailers, who will save billions of dollars in swipe fees. Airlines, hotels, the banking and financial industries and others have kept this legislation from getting very far. If it happened, US airlines would likely be bankrupt very quickly. Keep reminding your federal senators and representatives to NOT support this legislation, if it is re-introduced in the future. As this legislation would likely end our hobby, we don't want this legislation to ever become law.
Credit Card Offers are Outpacing Program Devaluations
I know it is hard to zoom out and view negative news from 35,000 feet, but award travel becomes clearer this way. Recently, the Chase Sapphire Preferred made a 75,000 offer its standard offer. Back in the “glory days” that many reminisce about, the offer was only 40,000 points. Back in the “glory days,” a highly-targeted, virtually unheard of welcome offer on the Business Gold was 75,000 points. Now, personal referrals offer 200,000 points. Likewise, we see 150,000+ point offers fairly regularly from many different banks, including Capital One, Chase, and Amex. Sure, devaluations hurt. But as long as welcome offers keep up the pace, we're good.
Banks are Reimagining Card Bonus Categories
Another side of earning points and miles, although not nearly as lucrative as welcome offers, is bonus categories. In the “glory days,” even cards with high annual fees had 1-2X spend. Most anything else was unheard of. Now, we have 4X hotels on a personal card and a business card, 5X on flights, 5X on hotels, 4X on dining, 5X at office supply, etc. It is really hard to earn less than 2X on everything and 4-5X on certain things. Again, this was unheard of in the not-so-distant past. With new cards hitting the market regularly, and competition getting more fierce by the day, we can expect these things to continue increasing too.
Luxury Travel Has Never Been Better
As recently as 2018, Sarah and I were over-the-moon to fly United Polaris Business Class to Australia. Mind you, it was not Polaris as we know today, it was (gasp!) 2-2-2 seating. That was state of the art for an American airline at the time. In fact, that business class, not so lovingly referred to as Fauxlaris, replaced a truly horrific 2-4-2 business class product. Yes, if you are unaware, just a few short years ago, United flew international business class with FOUR seats in the middle section. Oh, the horror!
Now, United is working to replace (true) Polaris seats with an even more private seat. Yes, the UPGRADE to the 2-2-2 Fauxlaris seats we flew just 7 years ago are now virtually obsolete. If you don't have suites, with sliding, privacy doors, you're a relic and must be replaced. This history lesson is true for most airlines around the world. Airlines everywhere are investing tons of money to make premium economy, business, and first class cabins better than ever before. Ask yourself this question: would you rather earn a 75,000 point signup bonus (the highest on the market at the time) and pay 70,000 points to fly to Australia in 2018 in a 4-wide business class seat or earn a 200,000 point signup bonus and pay 110,000 points to fly to Australia in early 2026 in a private suite with doors? I don't know about you, but 2026 is the absolute winner here. It's not even close.
Luxury Travel is Expanding
Not only are airlines all over the world expanding their offerings, but so are luxury hotels. The World of Hyatt has expanded its footprint by hundreds of hotels, especially the ever-popular all-inclusive hotels. Likewise, luxury brands like Waldorf Astoria, Ritz Carlton, St. Regis, Intercontinental, Conrad, Alila, and more continue to add properties all over the world. If you want to go most anywhere in the world, there is likely a luxury property available, even tiny little micro-islands in the Caribbean. Sarah and I head to a private island in the Seychelles next year to check out the Waldorf Astoria Platte Island. The amount of luxury properties we've visited since 2020, all due to increased welcome offers and bonus categories, greatly surpasses our first 5 years of award travel. Simply put, the world is your oyster when it comes to luxury hotels and expanding hotel program footprints.
Aggregators Harm Most Hobbyists
Last, but certainly not least, we've seen a rise in award travel aggregator sites in the last five years. Scroll our Facebook group, or the internet, and you'll see plenty of folks asking about, praising, or openly questioning these aggregators. I'm here to tell you that the future of points and miles is bright if you are willing to put in the time and effort to learn how to search awards yourself. Those that don't know how to search and rely on aggregators are getting exactly what they pay for: a crutch that prevents them from doing it themselves. These folks struggle with the game, outside of scoring a deal here or there. Trust me, if you LEARN to do this yourself, and we beg and plead everyday for everyone to do so, you'll find all the award seats you want. They are out there, are readily available, and you will find them!
Future of Points and Miles: ToP Thoughts
If a cynic is bullish on award travel, you should be too! Again, I truly believe all signs point to a healthy and robust award travel hobby. Cards, perks, welcome offers, and luxury travel are all on the rise. Devaluations happen, of course, but they usually do not outweigh all of the positive news. Spend the time and effort to learn this hobby in-and-out and you'll be set for years to come.
What are your thoughts on the future of points and miles? Come over to our Facebook Group and let us know.
