Upgrade To Sapphire Reserve
The number one question in the miles and points multiverse right now is should you upgrade to Sapphire Reserve. With the upcoming changes to the card next week, including a massive annual fee increase, it is a valid question. Why? Because you could enjoy all of the new perks at the current annual fee cost – which is several hundred dollars less. Seems like a no brainer, right? Get more for less, what is not to like? Not so fast! There are some potential pitfalls with this plan we need to discuss first. Let's dive into all of it.
Rule Changes Are Throwing A Wrench In Things
It looks like Gary from View from the Wing was able to get a Q & A done with some Chase reps at their launch party and unearthed some interesting tidbits. It looks like Chase is making a change to some of their application rules. Before you do a big song and dance, I am not sure this will be a good thing overall. It has some potentially good parts, but I don't think Chase is trying to make things easier for us. The changes also make what was usually a straightforward decision – on whether or not to upgrade to a Sapphire Reserve – a bit hairier.
Sapphire Family Rule
Currently Chase has the Sapphire family rule which means that you can not sign up for a new Sapphire family card while currently holding any Sapphire card. That includes the Sapphire card, Sapphire Preferred and Sapphire Reserve. The workaround for this rule was to downgrade to a no fee Freedom or Freedom Flex card when the time was right. You could then apply for the new Sapphire product without fear of being denied a few weeks after the downgrade.
Here was what Chase had to say to Gary about this rule going forward though:
Beginning June 23, 2025 you will be able to have both the Sapphire Reserve and Sapphire Preferred cards. New account bonus offer eligibility for either card will be based on factors including previously earned bonus offers and the number of cards opened and closed, among others.
It was always possible to carry both, via upgrades at least, but now you will soon be able to apply for one card while holding the other. That is a substantial change that I think people will be excited about. There has to be a negative (for us at least) reason they are doing this though. It becomes a little more clear as we see more and more tidbits from Gary's article. That second sentence sounds a lot like the Amex pop-up jail, so I don't think this will be a welcomed change for the majority of people.
48 Month Rule
Another rule, which went hand in hand with the Sapphire family rule, is the 48 month rule. You were ineligible for all Sapphire family products welcome offers within 48 months of each other. Even if you had already product changed out of the Sapphire card, or even closed it. No matter what you did you would not be eligible for a bonus on the same Sapphire card, or a sibling card, until 48 months had passed since the bonus points posted.
Here is what Chase had to say about the changes to that rule:
We are transitioning away from the family of cards every 48 month eligibility to a same product premium eligibility. The timeframe will be longer than 48 months but we aren’t able to share additional details.
There won't be a 48 month rule between the cards, or a family rule going forward. That means you should be able to get the welcome bonus on the Sapphire Preferred followed by the Sapphire Reserve in quick succession if you wanted. That sounds great but overly generous, doesn't it? Banks rarely go back on rules that are meant to hamstring unprofitable customers. Once again, the second sentence makes my Spidey senses tingle. The timeframe will be longer than 48 months, and there will be a same product premium eligibility. Does that sound like the makings of a once per lifetime rule, something Amex already has?
Approvals Without A Bonus Attached
Maybe the most annoying rule Chase has, or the one that makes the least amount of sense, is that you will only be approved for their cards if you are eligible for a welcome offer. That keeps people away from cards that they may value and use regularly. The fact that Chase could add these people as cardholders at no cost to them and said no thanks always kind of blew my mind.
It looks like Chase has finally smelled the roses on this decision. Here is what they have said about the rule going forward:
Consumers applying through most channels will be notified during the application process if they are not eligible for a bonus offer and given the choice to continue the application or cancel the application with no impact to their credit score.
Is that another page taken from the Amex playbook? You can currently get approved for any Amex credit card fairly easily. That is true even if you are in pop-up jail. Amex will approve you even after the pop-up, you just won't receive the welcome offer on the card. The pop-up informs you of this info after you apply, but before a hard pull is done. You can then decide to go ahead with the application if you just want the card perks and are okay without a bonus. If that isn't the case you can back out of the application at that time with no hard pull. Let's hope Chase refer a friend bonuses still post on these no welcome bonus approvals like they do with Amex!
Summary
Everyone is reading the tea leaves a bit here until we get a few weeks of data points to see how it all works in practice. I also didn't see any mention of dropping the 5/24 rule, not that they ever really publicly acknowledged it anyway. I think whatever basis they have for their version of the pop-up likely has a baseline of at least that. It could be possible to get around it if you are deemed a high value or profitable customer by their system. You could also get flagged as a bad customer very early on when you are well below 5/24. We just don't know at this point.
I don't think things will get easier though. That just isn't the way bank application rules and changes go. Throw in the fact that Chase lost a ton of money when the Sapphire Reserve first rolled out and I think they are going to be very cautious here. If this goes well according to their internal systems, then I could see it rolled out elsewhere. That would be terrible for us, especially if it hits the business cards.
The one silver lining of these changes is if people are able to get credit card approvals for cards that have no bonus attached. There are several cards that may be worthwhile grabbing with no bonus if you are well above 5/24, or if you are in their future potential version of pop-up jail. If you can get referral points for a spouse etc. from it, then even better!
Should You Upgrade To A Sapphire Reserve Card?
Now that we got all of the new rules, at least as best as we can guess at this point, out of the way let's answer the upgrade question. There are a lot of moving parts here so I will be pointing out more of the plus and minuses for each type of person. Whatever you decide to do you need to decide prior to June 23rd. That is the only way you can lock in the lower annual fee, get guaranteed 1.5 cents per point in the travel portal and still get to use the new perks (starting October 26th to grandfathered cardholders). If you value the portal then move your Ultimate Rewards into your new Sapphire Reserve card to lock in the ability to use them at 1.5 cents. Legacy cardholders need to do this before October 26, 2026 to lock it in until October 26, 2027. New Sapphire Reserve cardholders on June 23rd and after do not get the opportunity to lock in the portal rates.
Well Over 5/24 Person
If you are well over 5/24, and don't plan to go under any time soon, then this is the best candidate for an upgrade to the Sapphire Reserve. That is if you value the new card perks more than the $550 annual fee at least. You are unlikely to be eligible for a bonus anytime soon, so you are not risking much by doing this. You get an easy win over the next year in return for your efforts.
The potential downside is that they drop 5/24 and approve people above that for the refreshed Sapphire Reserve. That seems less likely, but it is a possibility.
You Have A Ton Of Chase Cards Already
Next up is the people that have 3 or 4 Chase business cards and 5 or 6 personal Chase cards etc. It is doubtful the new bonus approval system will like you much. That means that you are less likely to be approved with the bonus attached. Because of that it could be prudent to take what you can get and upgrade before June 23rd.
The risk is that they are pretty open to approvals early on to ensure a big launch of the refresh and you miss out on the bonus.
Middle Of The Road Chase Person
If you have a 2-3 business cards and 2-3 personal cards with Chase and are low end on your 5/24 then you have a choice. The deciding factor here will likely depend on your risk tolerance. At this point it seems like your application may get approved, even if you have the Sapphire Preferred already. Do you shoot for the moon and hope for the best? Do you take the sure thing and upgrade now instead? The answer comes down to how you manage risk in your life.
Greenhorn
If you are newer to the space, or have been taking a break for a long while, then you should be ready to strike while the iron is hot. If you have 2 or 3 Chase cards in total, and have a low 5/24 score, then I would sit tight and apply once the new card launches. I think you are more likely to be approved and the upside far outweighs the downside for you.
Upgrade To Sapphire Reserve: ToP Thoughts
There is a lot of food for thought here in terms of deciding whether to upgrade to Sapphire Reserve or not. Like most things in miles and points, it will depend on your personal situation. With the murkiness of Chase's new application rules it is a more difficult decision than it would have otherwise been. Hopefully this write up helps you through the process some though.
Let me know your plans over in the ToP Facebook Group.
